The Way Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough Which Escaped Biden
At first, the Israeli aerial attack on the Hamas delegation in Qatar appeared like another intensification that pushed the hope of peace out of reach.
This strike on 9 September breached the territorial integrity of an American ally and risked widening the conflict into a region-wide war.
Negotiations appeared to be in ruins.
However, it turned out to be a pivotal event that culminated in a deal, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
That represents a objective that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had sought for almost 24 months.
This marks just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the details of disarming Hamas, administering Gaza and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
Yet if this agreement holds, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his administration.
The president's distinct approach and crucial relationships with Israel and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this breakthrough.
However, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also elements involved beyond the influence of both leaders.
Strong Ties That Eluded Biden
Publicly, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
The president likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has called him as the country's "most supportive friend in the US presidency". Moreover these warm words have been matched by deeds.
Throughout his first presidential term, the president relocated the US embassy in the country from its former location to Jerusalem and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the occupied territories are illegal, the position under global norms.
After Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran in the summer, Trump directed American aircraft to target the nation's nuclear enrichment facilities with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
These visible shows of support may have allowed the president the leeway to apply more pressure on the Israeli government behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, his representative, browbeat the prime minister in late 2024 into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of a number of captives.
After Israel attacked against Syrian forces in the summer, including hitting a Christian church, Trump urged his counterpart to change course.
The leader displayed a degree of will and insistence on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, according to Aaron David Miller of the a think tank. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Joe Biden's relationship with the Israeli administration was always more strained.
The Biden team's "close embrace approach" argued that the US had to support Israel openly in order to allow it to moderate the nation's military actions behind closed doors.
Underneath this was Biden's decades-long of backing for Israel, as well as deep disagreements within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move the leader took risked fracturing his own political backing, while his successor's solid Republican base provided him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had little impact than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, Israel was unwilling to reach an agreement.
Eight months into Trump's second term, with Iran weakened, the militant group to its northern border greatly diminished and the coastal strip devastated, every one of its key military goals had been accomplished.
Business History Helped Secure Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, prompted the president to deliver an ultimatum to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
Trump had given the Israeli military a significant latitude in Gaza. He provided US armed support to Israel's campaign in Iran. But an strike on Qatar soil was a separate issue completely, moving him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
A number of Trump officials have told media outlets that this was a turning point which galvanised the leader to apply full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's close ties with the Gulf states are well documented. He has business dealings with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. The president began both his presidential terms with official trips to the kingdom. Recently, he also visited in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
His normalization agreements, which normalised relations between Israel and a number of Arab nations, including the Emirates, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
The time devoted in the cities of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months helped change his thinking, says an expert of the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the state where he heard repeated calls to put a stop to the conflict.
Within weeks after that attack on the city, Trump was present nearby as the prime minister personally called the Qatari leadership to apologise. And later that day, the prime minister signed off on Trump's comprehensive proposal for the territory - one that additionally had the backing of key Muslim nations in the area.
Assuming Trump's alliance with Netanyahu gave him the ability to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his history with Arab rulers may have secured their backing, and assisted them persuade Hamas to agree to the arrangement.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that President Trump developed influence with the Israeli government, and indirectly with the militants," says an analyst of the a research center.
"This was crucial. The capacity to do this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the demands of the combatants has been a challenge that lot of earlier administrations have struggled with, and he seems to handle with some success."
The fact that Trump is much more popular in Israel than the prime minister personally was leverage that he employed to his advantage, he adds.
Currently the Israeli government has committed to releasing over a thousand detainees held in Israeli prisons and has consented to a limited pullback from the strip.
Hamas will release all the captives still held, living and dead, captured during the initial October 7 assault, which resulted in the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has resulted in the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal