A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
